Until recently, the idea of cars that could drive themselves seemed like science fiction. But now self-driving cars are a rapidly advancing reality just around the corner, radically altering the way we travel , commute, and even design our urban environment. We are not there yet, and you can not exactly doze off in the back seat as your car drives itself across the country, but the next 5-to 10 years will bring major developments in three key AV areas: technology, infrastructure, and law.
Expanded Implementation of Level 3 Autonomy
Autonomy is graded on a scale from zero to 5. Today’s cars are mostly Level 1 or Level 2 autonomy in other words, driver assistance technology such as adaptive cruise control or lane keeping assist. During the next five years, I would expect most manufacturers to offer Level 3 capabilities in which the car can take over all driving tasks in some conditions, though drivers are expected to be ready to intervene at a moment’s notice.
The best Mercedes-Benz Level 3 Drive Pilot has already been approved in Germany and several U.S. states. Honda has similarly done so in Japan. Look for more luxury brands and eventually mainstream automakers to follow suit, particularly on the highway.
Autonomous Ride Hailing Will Expand But Stay Geofenced
Waymo, a unit of Google and Cruise financed by GM , already has driverless taxi services on the road in a handful of cities, including Phoenix, San Francisco, and Austin. These services are completely autonomous with no human driver in the loop, but they run only within highly managed areas often known as geofenced regions.
And the zones will be available in more cities with friendly regulatory environments over the next five years. Even so, full nationwide coverage is a long way off. Most people will encounter self-driving technology for the first time not in their personal vehicles but in ride-sharing vehicles or shuttles that ferry passengers to airports, campuses, or business parks.
Improvement in AI and Sensor Fusion for Safety Decisions
One of the greatest challenges present in AVs today is making decisions in edge cases. Edge cases are unexpected situations, such as a pedestrian jumping into traffic or debris falling off a truck. Through the use of AI and “sensor fusion,” self-driving cars are becoming increasingly adept at the real-time interpretation of complex environments.
Anticipate a significant enhancement of machine learning algorithms, particularly in edge case recognition, accident prediction, and instantaneous response. Tesla, Mobileye, and NVIDIA are all in a race to build better and more capable AI platforms to process billions of driving-related data points per second with greater levels of precision.
Infrastructure Will Start Catching Up
Self-driving cars do not exist in a vacuum; they are closely tied to road infrastructure, from digital mapping to smart traffic signals. Certain city centers will spend the next five years kitting themselves out with AV-friendly infrastructure. We will begin encountering more “connected” intersections that talk to passing cars, roads with embedded sensors, and standardized road signs made for machine vision.
In the U.S., China, and some places in Europe, federal and local governments are already investing in pilot projects to adapt highways and city roads so that they are AV-compatible, especially in high-tech cities.
More Regulations Fiercer Laws
The biggest roadblock to mainstream AV deployment is not technology, though; it is regulation. Headline-grabbing accidents involving autonomous vehicles have continued to keep the public in a state of tender trust. Governments will arrange for clearer legal standards around self-driving cars, such as:
- Whose fault is the AV-involved crash
- How insurance ought to work
- Standards for privacy and cybersecurity of data
Get ready for the next five years to see legislation creatively walk the tightrope between innovation and accountability, which will open the door to safer and more regulated deployment of AVs.
Final Thoughts
The next five years will represent a significant evolution, not revolution, in the maturation of self-driving cars. While we are a long way from Level 5 autonomy, complete automation in all conditions — a combination of smarter AI, wider ride-hailing availability, improved infrastructure, and new legal norms — will make self-driving a part of everyday life for many.
